Brier score
0.253
About the same as saying 50% to everything.
0.000 perfect0.250 coin flipworse
A win rate can look good by only predicting near certainties. The Brier score measures something harder: how far each stated probability sat from what actually happened, averaged across every call. Saying 50% to everything scores 0.250, so that is the line worth beating. Ours is not clearly beating it yet on 46 resolved predictions. That is the honest position, and it is the number to watch as the record grows. Unlike the curve below, this stays meaningful at small sample sizes because it scores every prediction rather than needing a full bucket.
On the losses. A forecaster saying 87% is supposed to be wrong about 13% of the time. If every 87% call landed, the number would be a lie, it would really have been a 99%. So the two calls on this page that say "we called 87% and were wrong" are not evidence the system is broken. They are part of what makes the number mean something. What would worry us is confident calls that never miss, or a Brier score that stops improving as the record grows.